Count the Trips

The Kings went 6 from 26 from three against Brisbane and still won by 15. On Wednesday night, Adelaide's two best players scored 66 of their 91 points, and Adelaide still lost. Sunday at Afterpay isn't a shootout. It's a count of trips up the floor, and only one of these teams can count.

Saturday morning, the shop off Crown Street. A young fella in for a taper had the Brisbane box score up on his phone and was reading it out like a charge sheet. "Six from twenty-six. Davis oh from seven. They got lucky, bro. Wait till Cotton gets hot."

The barber, the Bankstown bloke who's been cutting hair in Surry Hills since the late 2000s, didn't argue. He grabbed the docket book off the counter, turned to a clean page and drew two columns. Kings. Bullets. Then he said, "Read me the turnovers."

The night nothing went in

Wednesday 30 September, Afterpay Arena. Brisbane came in 2-0 and led 34-23 at quarter time. Arnas Velička was averaging 20 points and 12.5 assists. Kendric Davis couldn't hit a three if you held the ring still for him: 0 from 7. As a team, Sydney shot 6 from 26 from deep.

A normal side loses that game and blames the rims.

Sydney won the last three quarters 70-44 and won by 15. Here's what the docket book said. Sydney turned it over 8 times; Brisbane 14. Sydney went to the line 26 times and made 21; Brisbane got there 13 times and made 9. Points inside the arc, 54 to 30. Matthew Dellavedova picked up Velička 94 feet from the basket, then Torrey Craig and Makuach Maluach took turns, and the bloke who came in on 20 and 12.5 walked out with 15 and five.

The barber tapped the page. "Six extra trips they didn't waste. Thirteen extra free throws. That's your lucky."

What counting trips actually means

Every trip down the floor ends one of three ways: a shot, a free throw, or you hand the ball back. That's the whole game. Hot shooting is a bonus that turns up when it feels like it. Trips are a habit.

The Kings have the habit. Through their first three games they went 69 from 89 at the line, and basketball.com.au worked out Sydney had gained more from free throws than any club in the league, in a season where the whole competition is shooting 71.9 per cent, the worst in 14 seasons. Davis alone had been to the line 26 times for 21.

And the other half of the habit is the one nobody puts on a highlight reel: not fouling. Brisbane got 13 free throws all night. That's not the refs being kind. That's a plan. Brian Goorjian said it out loud last March, in the middle of the Championship Series against this exact opponent: "A big focus for us is Bryce, keeping our hands off him and defending him without fouling." Fouling Cotton on top of everything else, he said, "would be a travesty for us."

Getting something from this? The List sends the next essay first, free, Sunday mornings.

Cotton was shooting 88 per cent from the line at last count. You don't hand that man free points. You make him earn every one through a crowd, and you make the other nine 36ers beat you.

Which brings us to the problem.

Adelaide's problem is arithmetic

Wednesday night, home floor, sellout crowd of 10,047: Melbourne 96, Adelaide 91. Third straight loss, a run the 36ers never had all of last season. Bryce Cotton scored 33 with nine assists. Nick Rakocevic scored 33 with 14 boards. The other nine 36ers who got on the floor scored 25 between them on 10 from 29.

Sunday before that, at home to New Zealand, Cotton and Rakocevic had 48 of Adelaide's 72. Everyone else went 8 from 28.

That's not a team. That's a duet with a backing band that forgot the chords.

Now count Adelaide's trips. Wednesday they went 9 from 16 at the line while Melbourne went 20 from 23. An 11-point gap in a five-point loss. Rakocevic, who's been a genuine monster, went 3 from 8 at the stripe, and at basketball.com.au's last count he was the worst free throw shooter in the league among anyone with ten attempts, 5 from 14.

Then there's who isn't walking through the door. Flynn Cameron (ankle) and Isaac Humphries (knee) are still out, and Bul Kuol is out with his ACL. They've signed Corey Webster as an injury replacement. He played under five minutes on Wednesday without taking a shot. Mark Worthington put the hole plainly: without Humphries they don't have the big who punishes teams for jumping out at Cotton.

Trevor Gleeson didn't dress it up either. "You can't be scared of losing," he said. "I thought we were scared in the first half of making a mistake." And then the line that should be printed and stuck on the away dressing room door: "We can't rely on Bryce and Nick every day to get 30 points."

To be square about it, the 36ers came home hard on Wednesday. Down 20, they won the fourth quarter 32-20 and got it back to one possession before Cole Anthony buried the three that shut the door. Rakocevic is the first 36er since Mark Davis in 1992 to put up at least 29 points and 14 rebounds in consecutive games, according to @nblfacts. This is not a bad side. It's a short-handed one, playing its second game in five days, against the only unbeaten team in the league.

KD hasn't put his foot down

Davis is averaging 27.0 points, 6.3 assists and 5.7 rebounds in 30.8 minutes, for a team that's 3-0 and top of the ladder. On NBL Overtime this week, Damon Lowery gave the early MVP nod to Parker Jackson-Cartwright. Derek Rucker went the other way: "Kendric hasn't even put his foot down yet. He has not been required to go yet. Wait till he's required to go." And then, "He's thirsty for that MVP, man."

Fair knocks, because the shop insists. Davis is 4 from 20 from three for the season. Xavier Cooks was 8 from 14 at the line at last count. The Kings started slow against Brisbane and will have had eleven days between games by Sunday, which is either a rest or rust, and nobody knows which until about the six-minute mark of the first quarter.

But here's the thing about a team built on trips: it doesn't need the threes. If they go in on Sunday, it's a hiding. If they don't, it's still a win, because it was never about the threes.

My call, and who pays

Kings by double digits.

Not because the Kings are the better shooting team. They might not be, on the day. They win because they'll waste fewer trips, put Adelaide on the line less often, and live with Cotton getting his 30 the hard way. The Kings did it to Velička. They did it to Cotton for five games in March and April, the last one 113-101 in overtime with Davis on 35 points and 14 assists and the trophy staying in Sydney.

And who pays? Not Cotton. Cotton gets paid either way. Whoever's standing in the corner when Cotton finally gets doubled and kicks it out is going to pay. Zylan Cheatham, John Jenkins III, the young blokes off the bench. If they don't take the open shot, Sydney counts another empty trip. If they take it and miss, Sydney counts it anyway. Gleeson told Cheatham to "shoot the goddamn ball." Sunday is a pretty loud room to start listening.

Last I saw, the docket book was back on the counter with a fresh page and three columns this time. Kings. Sixers. And one headed "Excuses," for anyone who reckons the Kings get lucky again.

Kids go free on Sunday, doors at 1:45pm, tip at 3. Bring the family and count along.

If you want the result and the real trip count in your inbox on Monday, put your email in the Join the List box below. I'll tell you straight who paid, and whether the barber owes me a free cut.

Rico Holt  ·  ricoholt.com