Pattern Drop 25 · Political Essay
Pattern Drop 25 · Political Essay
Australia reminds me of Will Smith in the Will and Jada relationship.
Everybody around the world has started reassessing the relationship. Some countries are saying, "Maybe we need better boundaries." Others are saying, "Let's slow things down and work on ourselves first." A few have spoken to their accountants, checked the joint bank account and realised love is beautiful, but electricity still has to come out of the wall.
Meanwhile, Australia is standing there saying, "Ride or die."
That is our energy policy now. Ride or die. No prenup, no trial separation, no uncomfortable conversation about who keeps leaving the lights on. We are defending the relationship harder than the person we are in the relationship with.
The rest of the world has not broken up with renewable energy. That needs to be clear. Solar is growing, wind is growing, batteries are growing and nuclear power is making a comeback. The International Energy Agency expects renewables to overtake coal as the world's largest source of electricity generation during 2026, while renewables and nuclear together are forecast to provide around half of global electricity by 2030.
The relationship is still alive.
The difference is that everyone else has started renegotiating the terms.
Europe said, "We still love you, but we need energy security."
America said, "You can stay, but you better create American jobs."
China said, "I'm dating everybody."
India said, "I'll commit after I finish building the house."
Japan went back to its ex, nuclear power, because winter was coming and LNG was getting expensive.
Australia renewed the vows, booked the honeymoon suite in Fiji and is still waiting for the RSVP.
That is the story.
Australia is not unusual because it invests in renewable energy. Plenty of countries do that. Australia is unusual because our political class increasingly treats loyalty to the original climate script as evidence of national virtue.
Question the speed and you are accused of opposing the destination. Ask about reliability and somebody starts checking whether you once liked a mining company's Facebook post. Mention nuclear power and half of Canberra reacts as though you have proposed putting a reactor beside the swings at Centennial Park.
That is not an energy debate. That is relationship counselling where the therapist has already chosen a side.
Energy policy should provide reliable, affordable, secure and competitive energy. Technology neutrality. The simplest test in the whole argument: the objective is capability, not ideology.
That sounds obvious. Yet obvious ideas have become revolutionary in modern Australia.
A Builder Nation asks whether the system can power factories, hospitals, homes, trains, data centres and future industries. A Consumer Nation asks whether the policy announcement looked good at an international conference.
A Builder Nation measures what remains after the money has been spent. GDP is not capability. Consumption is not capability. Borrowing is not capability. Capability is what remains after the cheque clears, the consultants leave and the commemorative tote bags are packed away.
Did we build reliable generation? Did we strengthen the grid? Did we develop Australian technology? Did we train Australian workers? Did we increase sovereign capacity? Did household energy become more affordable?
Or did we create another office with a logo?
That is the difference between climate policy as national construction and climate policy as emotional commitment.
Australia has confused staying loyal with getting results.
Now we arrive in Fiji.
From 5 to 8 October 2026, Fiji is scheduled to host the Pre-COP preparatory meeting connected to COP31, with Tuvalu hosting a leaders' event. The main COP31 summit will take place in Antalya, Turkiye, from 9 to 20 November. Turkiye holds the formal hosting role, while Australia serves as President of Negotiations.
That title is important because Australia originally wanted the actual conference.
We campaigned to host COP31 in Adelaide with Pacific backing. After a prolonged contest with Turkiye, the compromise gave Turkiye the main summit and formal presidency. Australia received the negotiating role, the Pacific Pre-COP arrangement and the ability to present the outcome as a diplomatic victory.
It was the international-relations version of losing the grand final but being allowed to organise Mad Monday.
Turkiye got the stadium. Turkiye got the trophy presentation. Turkiye got the main event. Australia received a title complicated enough to require a departmental infographic.
"President of Negotiations."
That sounds like the bloke at a nightclub who could not get you through the front door but tells you he knows the promoter.
The Fiji and Tuvalu events have legitimate purposes. The Pacific faces serious questions involving climate resilience, energy access, infrastructure, water security and disaster exposure. The Australian Government says the events are intended to amplify Pacific leadership and help place regional priorities into the global negotiations.
Fair enough.
The Pacific is not the punchline here. Fiji did not manufacture Australia's political problem. Tuvalu did not send Canberra an invoice marked "international relevance." Pacific nations deserve serious engagement, practical infrastructure and genuine respect.
The embarrassment belongs to Canberra if Canberra promised to bring the world but could not bring the room.
Recent reporting, citing diplomatic sources, claimed Chris Bowen was struggling to obtain commitments from non-Pacific presidents and prime ministers. That reporting also questioned the wisdom of targeting heads of government instead of climate ministers, foreign ministers and senior negotiators who normally perform the detailed work before a major summit. Final attendance remains unknown, so it would be wrong to declare the event a failure before it occurs.
But politically, the problem is already visible.
Getting something from this? The List sends the next essay first, free, Sunday mornings.
The government appears to have designed the photograph before securing the people who were meant to stand in it.
A Pre-COP filled with climate ministers and technical negotiators could be presented as serious work. A Pre-COP marketed around world leaders creates a different test. Once presidents and prime ministers become the promise, every unconfirmed chair becomes part of the story.
Bowen was asked about attendance and would not provide a firm public number, arguing that Australia does not announce the travel plans of other governments. That may be diplomatically defensible. It is politically hopeless.
Australians hear that and think, "So you can tell us what the conference will achieve, what the world will discuss and how important the event is, but the guest list is national-security information?"
Mate, it is a climate conference, not a surprise birthday party.
Then came the accommodation contracts.
The Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water entered arrangements with a reported maximum combined value of about $4.217 million across the Sheraton Fiji Golf and Beach Resort, Sofitel Fiji Resort and Spa, and Radisson Blu Resort Fiji. The government says this is a contractual ceiling rather than the final cost, that some delegations may reimburse expenses, and that unused accommodation may be cancelled or refunded.
That distinction matters. It would be dishonest to say $4.2 million has already been lost on empty rooms.
But the public question survives the clarification:
Why did you reserve a multi-resort footprint before confirming enough important guests to justify it?
This is where government explanations run into the pub test. Canberra says "contractual ceiling, reimbursement provisions, logistical requirements and cancellation mechanisms."
The bloke opening his electricity bill in Bankstown says, "Did anyone RSVP or not?"
That is the Feedback Trap in one exchange. The system creates complexity, complexity creates expenditure, expenditure creates criticism, and criticism is answered with even more complexity. Every explanation may be technically correct, yet the explanation itself reinforces the suspicion that ordinary Australians are being managed rather than answered.
The wider mistake is believing Australia must choose between abandoning climate action and following the original script forever.
Other countries have found a third option. They kept the relationship and rewrote the prenup.
Europe still invests heavily in renewable energy, but the war in Ukraine exposed the cost of depending on Russian gas. The conversation moved from pure emissions targets toward resilience, diversified supply, grid strength and industrial competitiveness. European countries expanded LNG infrastructure while continuing to build renewable capacity and reconsider nuclear power. High energy costs are now treated as a threat to Europe's industrial base, not an inconvenient footnote to the transition.
Europe went to counselling. It said, "We believe in the relationship, but you are not getting access to all our passwords anymore."
France never fully joined the renewable-only fantasy. It maintained nuclear power as the backbone of a low-emissions electricity system and added renewables around it. France did not look at a nuclear reactor and say, "That does not match the vibe." It asked whether the thing produced electricity.
Germany offers the opposite lesson. It built large amounts of renewable generation, shut nuclear plants and discovered that a power system cannot run on moral confidence. Dependence on Russian gas created vulnerability, and German industry has been forced to confront energy costs that affect its global competitiveness.
Germany is the friend who told everybody they had found themselves, then called at 2 am asking whether they could sleep on the couch.
The United Kingdom still pursues net zero, but its political argument increasingly revolves around cheaper power, domestic jobs, energy independence and industrial strategy. Gas remains in the mix. Nuclear remains in the mix. The relationship is still there, but the romance has been replaced by a spreadsheet.
The United States changes direction according to who occupies the White House, but American energy policy is increasingly judged through American power. Does it create jobs? Does it weaken dependence on China? Does it increase domestic manufacturing? Does it strengthen the industrial base?
America does not ask whether the United Nations will clap.
America asks whether Ohio will get a factory.
China is not in a relationship. China has a roster.
China builds solar, wind, hydro, nuclear, coal, gas, batteries, transmission lines and electric vehicles. It is dating solar on Monday, coal on Tuesday, nuclear on Wednesday and taking hydro away for the weekend. China does not care whether the technologies like each other. If they strengthen Chinese industry, they are all getting invited to dinner.
India also expands renewables while maintaining coal because reliable electricity, development, industrialisation and poverty reduction remain its immediate priorities. India will not sacrifice national development to receive a congratulatory LinkedIn post from somebody with "global transformation leader" in their biography.
Japan reduced nuclear generation after Fukushima, then started reconsidering and restarting reactors as import dependence and energy security became harder to ignore. That is what grown countries do. They respond to evidence. They change policy when circumstances change.
Canada combines hydro, renewables, fossil-fuel exports and climate regulation. Norway produces clean domestic electricity while remaining a major oil and gas exporter, using resource wealth to strengthen its sovereign position.
Norway is basically the person at the climate conference who arrived in an electric car paid for by oil money.
Nobody wants to discuss that part.
The real global model is not renewables instead of everything. It is increasingly renewables plus nuclear, gas, grids, storage, industrial policy and national capability. The balance differs between countries, but the guiding question is becoming consistent:
What makes our country safer, stronger and more competitive?
Australia's question too often sounds different:
What proves we are a good international citizen?
This is where the Fiji story connects to the bigger pattern.
Canberra behaves less like the owner of a sovereign country and more like the manager of somebody else's store. Global institutions create a policy framework. Universities teach the language. Consultants translate it into Australian PowerPoint. Departments convert it into standards, offices and reporting requirements. Corporations learn how to monetise compliance. Politicians receive invitations to international meetings where everybody congratulates one another for making more commitments.
Then the Australian public gets the invoice.
Europe says energy security. America says manufacturing. China says national strength. India says development.
Australia says alignment.
We are the franchisee still wearing the promotional uniform three campaigns after head office changed the logo.
The concern is not that every renewable project is corrupt or every climate official is dishonest. The concern is structural. Once climate policy becomes an ecosystem of subsidies, ratings, disclosure regimes, consultants, asset managers, conferences and communications contracts, the process develops beneficiaries independent of the outcome.
Departments benefit from expanded responsibilities. Consultants benefit from complexity. Communications firms benefit from the need to explain the complexity. Universities benefit from courses that create the next generation of people qualified to administer the complexity. Corporations with large compliance teams benefit because small competitors cannot afford to navigate the complexity.
Nobody has to meet in a dark room and plot it.
The incentives do the work.
The modern state becomes better at measuring, certifying, disclosing and announcing than at building. The approval process takes longer than the project, then the government commissions a review into why nothing gets built.
Eventually the country has more people writing strategies about energy than people capable of constructing an energy system.
Government should not organise policy around fashionable institutional identities. It should ask whether a decision improves life for Australian citizens while strengthening long-term capability.
Not whether the policy wins applause. Not whether a minister receives another title. Not whether Australia is praised for leadership.
Does it make life better, and does it make the country stronger?
That is the civic question.
Inside the climate-policy ecosystem, Fiji may look strategic. Diplomats see regional relationships. Engineers see infrastructure needs. Pacific governments see opportunities for finance and international attention. Climate professionals see a chance to influence negotiations before the main summit.
Those interests are real.
Outside that room, Australians see something else.
They see flights, resorts, bureaucrats, international titles and contracts. They see a government asking households to accept disruption and higher transition costs while officials fly to a tropical island to discuss sacrifice.
The emotional message becomes:
"You need to change how you live. We need to go to Fiji to explain it."
That may be unfair to the technical work. Politics is not judged only through technical fairness. It is judged through trust.
A family in Western Sydney does not experience energy policy as a conference communique. They experience it when the bill arrives. A cafe in Surry Hills does not experience net zero as a negotiation framework. It experiences refrigeration, lighting, rent, wages and another supplier email explaining a price increase.
A manufacturer does not live inside a ministerial press release. It lives inside the cost per unit.
This is why ridicule is becoming more dangerous than anger. Anger still assumes the government is powerful. Ridicule concludes the government is performing.
The public is no longer satisfied by process being presented as achievement. It wants to know whether power became cheaper, whether reliability improved, whether Australian industry expanded, whether the Pacific received useful infrastructure and whether the people invited to the conference actually turned up.
The resorts are booked. The talking points are ready. The office has been created. The title has been secured.
The only unresolved detail is the audience.
Australia does not need to break up with renewable energy.
It needs self-respect.
It needs boundaries, technology neutrality and an honest conversation about what the relationship is costing, what it is producing and whether it is making the country stronger. It needs climate policy that answers to Australian capability, not Australian policy that answers to climate institutions.
The Pacific deserves practical support, not a stage prop. Australian households deserve affordable and reliable energy, not another argument about why the next round of spending will eventually make sense. Australian workers deserve industries, apprenticeships and infrastructure that remain after the conference banners come down.
Everybody else turned up to marriage counselling.
Australia turned up renewing its vows.
Europe kept the relationship but demanded security. America demanded employment. China opened the relationship. India said development comes first. Japan called its ex. Norway somehow kept the oil money and the moral reputation.
Australia booked Fiji.
The world did not abandon the transition. It rewrote the prenup. Australia is still standing at the Oscars, protecting the relationship, defending the original script and waiting for international approval.
Ride or die.
The problem is that countries are not supposed to die proving they can ride.
If the prenup rewrite landed and the Oscars pose still held, tip the desk that called the loyalty. Essays stay free.
Leave a tip · A$5Get the next essay and the book launch price first.
Privacy: your email gets used for one thing, sending you Rico Holt essays and book news. It's stored with Netlify, our form host. Never sold, never shared. Want off? Reply to any email and you're gone.